In a coin-toss election, businesses must prepare for a heads or tails outcome

By Liz Sidoti, Matt Reid and Mike Hotra

In this mudslinging, misinformation-filled U.S. presidential election campaign Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are coming from the political spectrum’s vastly opposite ends. And, with a few exceptions, each is all but certain to try to adhere mostly to Republican and Democratic orthodoxy, respectively. That much is clear.

It’s less clear when we will definitively know the outcome of what polls suggest is an extraordinarily close race. Indeed, a global H/Advisors study* examining business views found that across the world, companies are bracing for an extended period of uncertainty, mindful that the election outcome may not be known in November at the polls, but rather, weeks or even months later in the courts.

No matter the outcome, executives will face a similar set of challenges and those who prepare will be in the best position to mitigate risks and seize opportunities that the eventual new administration will present to achieve their most desired business outcomes. Here’s what corporate leaders should do:

1. FOCUS ON ISSUES DRAWING INTEREST FROM BOTH REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS — No matter who wins the presidency, which party controls Congress or if there’s divided government, several significant issues have become universal concerns, despite the intense partisan environment. Expect continued:

  • Scrutiny around market competition and antitrust issues.
  • Anxiety around economic instability, inflation pressure and supply chain challenges, including because of efforts to stunt China.
  • Wariness about foreign conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East impacting global business as well as worries about a secure border and immigration issues, the latter of which could have visa implications for companies.
  • Alarm over technological innovation, including artificial intelligence, teenage content targeting, cybersecurity and cryptocurrency.
  • Resolve – overshadowed by political wrangling and eventual compromise – over keeping the government, including private-sector contracts, funded.

2. UNDERSTAND WHAT TRUMP AND HARRIS WOULD ACTUALLY DO WHEN GOVERNING – This starts with blocking out the noisy sideshows and the policy platitudes that each candidate is directing at on-the-fence voters. Look beyond their governing styles – Trump is more chaotic while Harris operates more like a traditional CEO – and examine both their records and rhetoric. Here’s a snapshot of how each likely will largely hew to his or her respective party lines (unless the opposing party wins all or part of Congress and forces the new president to the center).

  • Trump: Look at his first term to forecast his likely policy platform but also a less chaotic, more organized and efficient administration. Expect a “snap back” of most regulations the Biden administration adopted, including around climate change, efforts to cut the corporate tax rate (to 15 percent from 21 percent), hardline immigration policies, friendly energy policies and “America first” policies that would instill new tariffs on all imports into the U.S.
  • Harris: It has been difficult to determine what policies she would actually seek to implement. In this short campaign, she has been intentionally vague to avoid Republican attacks and Democratic complaints. Anticipate mostly a continuation of Biden economic doctrines – and likely much of his domestic and foreign agenda – with a few exceptions. Among them: increasing the corporate tax rate to 28 percent from 21 percent and reversing the 2017 tax cuts for higher earners. If Republicans win control of Congress, she may get off to a slow legislative start and focus largely on executive actions.
  • Under both, personnel will be policy in the first wave of senior administration officials and political appointees, so companies should map their relationships and connections, which will be important if there’s an issue on which they want help, as soon as it becomes clear who will get coveted jobs.

3. DETERMINE WHERE THE ENTERPRISE STANDS – Identify policy priorities now, if that hasn’t been done already, based on business objectives, company culture and core values, as well as a communications approach around those issues.

  • Figure out whether to lead, be part of the industry pack or follow on each of those issues.
  • Keep an eye on the big picture – macro political, societal and corporate trends – and understand how the company fits in that big picture and its impact on the company.
  • Adopt a matrix model for determining which policy issues leadership would be comfortable speaking out.

4. SET UP INTERNALLY FOR SUCCESS — Ensure the company’s team is integrated – with each other, with the business units and with leadership – so issues can be examined from all angles and with all available information.

  • Create a system that makes clear who simply has input on issues and who ultimately decides whether and how to engage.
  • Keep that “decider” team small and nimble.
  • Get buy in from business unit leaders so they understand that communications and engagement activities are intended to defend and support business outcomes and protect and bolster the enterprise’s reputation.

5. ADOPT A STAKEHOLDER-FIRST MINDSET – Accept that in this “brave new world,” where policy and business are exceptionally intertwined, corporations can’t – and shouldn’t – stay silent on everything, and let employee, customer, shareholder, vendor, etc., sentiment shape the communications approach.

  • Create a feedback system to LISTEN to stakeholders – “sensing” or “monitoring” or “horizon scanning” – including internal chatter and external engagement on social media – to understand as intimately as possible their concerns and expectations.
  • Create clear, concise and consistent overarching core messages.
  • Calibrate those messages for each group, including which parts to emphasize and how to deliver them, depending on their needs.

The bottom line: companies that successfully navigate this turbulent time accept that, like it or not, public policy – including cultural, social and economic issues – will be thrust into the C-Suite and boardroom even more in the coming months as a new administration assumes power. And planning around what is known (bipartisan issues) and what can be safely assumed (that both Trump and Harris will largely try to advance policies core to their respective party beliefs) will best prepare executives to support and defend their businesses – and their corporate reputations.

 

*Global Elections 2024; H/Advisors